Research note · TerraNova Capital Partners · July 2026
The State of Private Credit — H2 2026
A research note from TerraNova Capital Partners, built on the Agentas lender dataset. Every figure below is pulled from the live dataset and defined in the methodology note.
The map, as it stands
2,236
active funds researched
16,004
deal-team contacts tracked
5,601
verified work emails
303
funds with TerraNova referral agreements
Coverage spans eleven deal types (funds commonly carry several structures, so counts overlap):
| Equity | 1,096 funds |
| Senior | 869 funds |
| Mezzanine | 707 funds |
| Project Finance | 557 funds |
| Equipment Finance | 478 funds |
| Asset-Based Lending | 378 funds |
| Unitranche | 315 funds |
| Real Estate Debt | 218 funds |
| Bridge | 206 funds |
| Revolving Credit | 112 funds |
| Venture Debt | 66 funds |
What the data exposes: the middle-market coverage gap
The median sourced check-size band across the direct-lender peer set sits near $10M–$100M. The center of gravity of private credit supply is aimed at the middle market, not at the nine-figure deals that anchor most commentary on the asset class.
The large multi-strategy platforms publish wide ranges that, on paper, span the $5M–$50M segment. In practice, a $30M unitranche competes for attention inside a fund whose average ticket runs an order of magnitude larger, and response rates reflect that. The funds that genuinely own the $5M–$50M band are the specialists: single-strategy shops whose published range brackets the borrower’s ask tightly, where a $20M check is a core position rather than a rounding error. On live mandates, the lenders who return the first call are rarely the ones with the widest ranges.
What this means for a $5M–$100M raise
- Count your real lender set, not the famous set. Of 2,236 active funds, the shortlist that fits a given deal on size, structure, sector, and geography typically runs to dozens — and it rarely resembles the conference-circuit list.
- Range fit is the first screen. A fund whose band is built around your check size will out-execute a megafund that merely spans it. Treat flagged estimates as provisional until a sourced figure confirms them.
- Reachability is the second screen. A perfect-fit fund without a named deal-team contact converts poorly. Of 16,004 tracked contacts, roughly one in three carries a verified work email today — know which side of that line your shortlist sits on before the process starts.
Methodology note
- “Researched” means each active fund profile is compiled from public sources — fund websites, SEC filings, deal announcements, team pages — and reviewed by a person before it ships. An automated pipeline proposes changes daily; a human approves or rejects every one.
- “Verified email” means a work email confirmed deliverable through licensed verification providers. Verified contacts are marked as such; an email that bounces is re-checked and the status updated.
- “Estimate”means the fund discloses no check-size range, so we modeled one from fund AUM and comparable lenders. Estimates are flagged “~ (est.)” wherever they appear, carry less weight than sourced ranges in scoring, and are replaced the moment a sourced or lender-confirmed figure arrives. 949 of 2,236 ranges are currently estimates.
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